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    The Real Armageddon 
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            Will the Universe accelerate out of
            sight, or collapse in a fiery Big Crunch? Despite recent reports of
            acceleration, the far future cannot be predicted. But the prospects
            for life are more dismal than ever.
            by Lawrence M. Krauss 
            
            
            
            A lot has changed in the past thirty
              years  and thats as true of cosmology as it is of everyday
              life. New observing technologies and strategies have immeasurably
              increased our ability to probe and map the Universe on its largest
              scales. Theoretical developments in elementary particle physics
              have allowed us to reliably extend our picture of the Universe back
              in time, to a point far less than a second after the Big Bang itself.
               
            In spite of these developments, however,
              we are now coming to realize that our ability to predict the future
              of the Universe is no longer so certain as astronomers thought a
              few years ago. Oddly enough, this new-found uncertainty about the
              destiny of the Universe itself doesnt preclude us from making
              some definitive statements about the long-term future of life. And
              it doesnt look good. 
               
            
            The startling development at the heart of all of
              this is the observation that the Universe is not decelerating, as
              it should do in any sensible scheme of things, but rather appears
              to be accelerating. The surprise of this discovery is based
              on an intuition familiar to anyone who has ever thrown a ball up
              into the air. The faster you throw it, the higher it goes. You can
              imagine that if you throw it up fast enough, the ball will not come
              back. Indeed, a ball thrown from the Earths surface with a
              velocity in excess of about 7 miles per second will escape from
              our planets gravitational field and continue to travel outward
              indefinitely (although in fact this velocity is not sufficient to
              escape from the pull of the Sun). 
            But, the key point here is that  even as the
              ball is escaping - its velocity is always slowing, in response to
              the work it has to perform to escape from the Earth. Gravity, at
              least for all normal matter, is attractive, and thus it takes work
              to pull objects apart. 
            This reasoning applies to the Universe as a whole.
              Since Edwin Hubbles observations in the 1920s, weve
              known that the galaxies are moving apart from one another: the Universe
              is expanding. Traditionally we have argued that the ultimate determinant
              of the galaxies future is the amount of mass contained in
              and around galaxies. If this mass is large enough, its gravity should
              be strong enough to halt the outward movement of galaxies, causing
              them to eventually collapse together in a reverse of the Big Bang,
              a so-called Big Crunch. 
            
            
              
                    
                  NASA 
                   Will
                    the Universe end in a fiery Big Crunch? Will this be the real
                    Armageddon? 
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            The new observation of an apparently accelerating
              Universe implies that some kind of cosmic antigravity
              is at work. This may sound like the stuff of science fiction, but
              it has a basis in physics. If you endow empty space with energy,
              the gravitational effect of this energy has the strange property
              of producing a new repulsive force throughout all of space. While
              this theoretical insight has been known for over a generation, the
              common wisdom was that such energy in empty space must be precisely
              zero.  
            In fact, when Einstein first laid out the equations
              that govern the large-scale structure of the Universe in 1916, he
              introduced the possibility of universal repulsion in the shape of
              a quantity called the cosmological constant - without knowing its
              significance on the microscopic scale. However, he quickly dispensed
              with the idea, calling the cosmological constant his "biggest
              blunder". 
            If the current observations are correct, however,
              empty space contributes more energy to the expanding Universe than
              is associated with the rest mass of all the galaxies, stars and
              planets. It even exceeds the energy bound up in the vast amounts
              of dark matter that astronomers believe exists around and between
              galaxies. We currently have no sound theoretical understanding of
              why this should be the case. Nevertheless, we can ask what the consequences
              might be for the future - both of our Universe and of the life within
              it.  
            You might imagine that if the expansion of the Universe
              is accelerating, this implies that the Universe will go on expanding
              forever. But things are not that simple. We dont know the
              source of the energy of the vacuum and so it may have properties
              we are currently unaware of. Here are three possibilities: 
            
              - The vacuum energy decreases with
                time. The acceleration also slowly decreases, and ultimately the
                future of the Universe will once again be determined by the gravitational
                attraction of the matter within it. 
 
             
            
              - The present inferred acceleration
                is later proved to be incorrect, but there is still a tiny amount
                of vacuum energy. You might suspect that once again an inventory
                of all the matter in the Universe should allow us to determine
                the ultimate long-term behavior of the expansion. Alas, this is
                not the case. If we found there was enough matter for us to be
                heading towards a Big Crunch, the energy in the vacuum can have
                unexpected effects. Suppose that empty space possesses an amount
                of energy only one-thousandth the amount needed to measurably
                affect the present expansion. This energy would still eventually
                forestall the ultimate collapse of a universe in which matter
                currently appears to have the upper hand. 
 
             
            
              - Finally, and perhaps most unusual
                of all, once we realize that empty space has energy, nothing forbids
                this energy from being negative. If this is the case, then even
                an unimaginably small negative energy in empty space will ultimately
                cause the Universe to recollapse, independent of how much matter
                now exists therein. 
 
             
            
              
                    
                  NASA 
                   The
                    Perseus cluster of Galaxies is accelerating away from us,
                    every hour the Universe grows a billion miles in every direction 
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            A year ago, Michael Turner, of the University of
              Chicago, and I demonstrated that there are no observations one can
              hope to make in any finite time which will allow us to unambiguously
              determine the ultimate future of our expanding Universe. At least
              one cosmic mystery therefore appears to remain safe.  
            The only way out would be to develop a "Theory
              of Everything" that precisely predicts, in the absence of experimental
              input, all of the fundamental parameters of the Universe. But there
              are no signs whatsoever that such a development is in the cards.
               
             
              We will therefore have to make sure that we, or our descendants,
              can hang around long enough to witness the final reel in this cosmic
              drama. However, other recent work suggests that while the Universe
              may expand forever, life cannot persist forever. (As any salesman
              for long
              term care insurance will happily tell you) 
            In fact, an accelerating universe turns out to be
              precisely the worst possible universe that anyone can inhabit -
              in the long term, at least. My colleague Glenn Starkman and I have
              recently described what our descendants would see in the far future.
              In an accelerating Universe, distant stars will slowly blink out
              of sight, as the space that is carrying them away expands faster
              than light-speed. In an imaginable time, about 150 billion years
              - during which stars will still be burning and one may imagine life
              existing around Earth-like planets - all of the galaxies outside
              our local supercluster will become invisible even to the most powerful
              telescopes. We will become ever more alone in the Universe.  
            
            
              
                    
                  NASA 
                   The
                    human race will have ceased to exist before the fate of the
                    Universe is revealed. 
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            Worse still, in a universe dominated by vacuum energy,
              life must eventually run out of available stores of energy which
              it can use to survive. The vast energy of empty space is inaccessible
              for such use, and the accessible energy is carried away too quickly
              for us to collect. Like a mariner becalmed on an ocean of salt water
              who utters "water, water, everywhere, but not a drop to drink!"
              we will be adrift in a cosmic sea of energy without any to spare
              for our own metabolism. 
            What if the acceleration of the Universe eventually
              ceases - is there then any hope for life? In 1979, physicist Freeman
              Dyson proposed that if we were particularly careful, and hibernated
              for longer and longer periods, life could survive with a finite
              amount of available energy for an infinite amount of time. On the
              other hand, Starkman and I have more recently argued that prospects
              for intelligent life, at least, are less hopeful. Quantum mechanics
              will ultimately limit the ability of life to perform the computations
              necessary for consciousness. This issue is not yet settled, however.
              Dyson has not given up, and we are continuing our friendly debate.
               
            We have lots of time for discussion. Even if the
              limits we have described on the long-term perdurability of life
              eventually come to pass, we are talking about literally billions
              of billions of billions of billions of times the present age of
              the Universe.  
            Well before these cosmic limits come to into play,
              life on Earth will have to face far more immediate challenges, associated
              with the evolution of our planet and the death of the Sun. Having
              the foresight and cooperation needed to deal with these global changes
              will be more demanding than any other challenge our civilization
              has ever faced. Hopefully we will be up to the task  and it
              will help to put us on track to tackle whatever future the Universe
              may have in store.  
            
              
            
            Copyright
              (c) FirstScience.com  | 
   
  
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            Lawrence
              M. Krauss is the Ambrose Swasey Professor of Physics, Professor
              of Astronomy and Chairman of the Physics Department at Case Western
              Reserve University. The ideas discussed here are adapted from discussions
              in his most recently published book, Quintessence: The Mystery
              of the Missing Mass in the Universe, and also from his forthcoming
              title,
              Atom: An Odyssey from the Big Bang to Life on Earth. In
              February he was awarded the 2000 Public Understanding of Science
              Award from the American Association for the Advancement of Science,
              in Washington D.C. 
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