High fuel prices could slash US emissions.

Knittel’s findings, presented last month at the University of California Energy Institute in Berkeley, are in broad agreement with those of economist Kenneth Small of the University of California, Irvine. Small looked at data on US fuel consumption and prices over the past 40 years, and projected last year that the recent doubling in fuel prices would quickly lead to a 4 per cent drop in the total mileage covered on the roads. In the longer term, as drivers continue to react to rising prices, he projects the size of the reduction will grow to around 20 per cent (The Energy Journal, vol 28, p 25).

This would lead to a substantial reduction in carbon emissions. Small says that a $1 per gallon rise in gasoline prices, roughly that seen over the past two years, will result in motorists using 14 per cent less fuel in the long term. That would avoid the release of some tens of millions of tonnes of CO2 per year, equivalent to roughly 2 per cent of the country’s greenhouse-gas emissions for 2006. That is a hugely significant drop, close to the level of cuts that some nations are required to make under the Kyoto protocol.

Small’s prediction comes with major caveats, however. Gasoline prices are not expected to return to the lows of a decade ago, but could fall by 10 or 20 per cent in coming years. And any US economic recovery will boost fuel consumption, partly through raising incomes, which would dilute the pressure on motorists to drive less. So while expensive fuel will rein in consumption, Small and other economists question whether this will be enough to cause an overall fall in emissions from cars.

It is also possible that politics will intervene before any of these effects has a chance to kick in. Presidential hopefuls John McCain and Hillary Clinton have reacted to consumer protests over soaring fuel prices by declaring that they would suspend federal gasoline taxes. “It’s a fantastically stupid idea,” says Roberton Williams, an economist at the University of Texas at Austin.

“But people don’t like high gas taxes, so it’s popular.”

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