CU-Boulder researchers forecast 3-in-5 chance of record low Arctic sea ice in 2008

"Based on the current sea ice conditions, aerospace engineering Research Professor Jim Maslanik said the Northern Sea Route -- the shipping lane from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean along the Russian coastline -- might also open up this summer. "It also is quite possible that extensive ice-free conditions could develop at or near the North Pole," said Maslanik.

CU-Boulder's Arctic Regional Ice Forecasting System group -- the only research group in the world currently making seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasts based on probability -- receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA.

In January 2008, a team led by Maslanik and involving CCAR's Drobot, Charles Fowler and William Emery, as well as Julienne Stroeve of CU-Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and NASA's Jay Zwally and Donghui Yi, concluded there had been a nearly complete loss of the oldest, thickest Arctic sea ice. The team calculated that 58 percent of the remaining Arctic sea ice was thin and only two to three years old.

The researchers used passive microwave, visible infrared radar and laser altimeter satellite data from NOAA, NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense, as well as ocean buoys to measure and track sections of sea ice. They developed "signatures" of individual ice sections roughly 15 miles square using their thickness, roughness, snow depth and ridge characteristics, tracking them over the seasons and years as they moved around the Arctic.

Last summer the CCAR Arctic Regional Ice Forecasting System group, which has been making Arctic sea ice forecasts for the past six years, correctly forecast the 2007 record minimum. Updated forecasts will be provided throughout the spring and summer. For more information visit the Web at http://ccar.colorado.edu/arifs.

CU-Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center, which also analyzes changes and trends in Arctic sea ice, maintains a Web site with general information about sea ice, updated images of Arctic sea ice conditions, monthly analyses and more frequent sea ice updates during the summer melt season. For more information on the NSIDC Arctic sea ice research activity, visit the Web at http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/.