AMS April science highlights

Comparison Models to Determine the Risk of Tropical Cyclone Landfall

Powerful tropical cyclones are among the most devastating of natural phenomena, and there is intensive effort to predict their landfall rate along coastlines. Such predictions are needed, for example, by insurance companies to set insurance rates and by governments to establish building codes. A paper in the February issue of the AMS’ Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology takes a closer look at two different models to estimate future landfall rates on a segment of coastline – a “local model” and a “track model.” The “local model” is built solely on historical landfall events on the coastline segment of interest. The “track model” simulates entire tropical cyclone tracks from genesis to end using historical data over the full North Atlantic Basin. The researchers’ results justify, the use of track models over local models for landfall risk assessment on regional and smaller scales. Over much of the North Atlantic coastline the track model is genuinely better at predicting landfall rates than a local model, according to their findings. For a copy of the paper, contact Stephanie Kenitzer.

More on Hurricanes - Climatological Hurricane Landfall Probability for the United States

Another paper in the February issue of the AMS’ Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology examines the historical record of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean basin to determine the eventual landfall probability for the U.S. coastline based on the complete tracks of those storms. For example, if a tropical cyclone is near the island of Puerto Rico, which portions (if any) of the U.S. coastline are most at risk of eventual landfall" The researcher, Brian Brettschneider of Texas State University, San Marcos, calculated probabilities and mapped them for four individual states, and for the United States as a whole. In addition, an average length of time until landfall is calculated for the entire Atlantic basin based on the complete period of record. For a copy of the paper, contact Stephanie Kenitzer.

Press Briefing: The State of the Science of Weather Modification