The Fury of Hurricanes

NOAA It is unlikely unlikely that human intervention will ever prevent hurricanes.

Can human intervention diminish the force of a hurricane? From the mid-1960s through the early 1980s NOAA actively pursued Project STORMFURY, a program of experimental hurricane modification. The general strategy was to reduce the intensity of the storm by cloud seeding. The seeding, it was argued, would stimulate the formation of a new eyewall that would surround the existing eyewall. The new eyewall would contract, strangling the old eyewall and reducing the intensity of the hurricane. However, research carried out at AOML showed clearly that these "concentric eyewalls" happened often in unmodified hurricanes, thus casting doubt on the seemingly positive results of seeding in earlier experimentation. Hurricane Luis provides an example of this behavior. Moreover, observations showed that hurricanes contain little of the supercooled water necessary for cloud seeding to work.

The American Meteorological Society policy statement on planned and inadvertent weather modification, dated October 2, 1998, indicates, "There is no sound physical hypothesis for the modification of hurricanes, tornadoes, or damaging winds in general, and no related scientific experimentation has been conducted in the past 20 years." In the absence of a sound hypothesis, no Federal agencies are presently doing, or planning, research on hurricane modification.

During the 40 years between 1930 and 1959, inclusive, 70 people a year died in the U.S. hurricanes. Since 1950, the midpoint of this interval, population in the 109 coastal counties between Texas and Virginia had increased by a factor of 3.4. If the forecaster's art had not improved during the last century, expected annual mortality to this larger population from hurricanes would be 238, with an economic impact of $1785M. By this estimate the stakes of the annual hurricane game are $8.9B, of which $2.8B, or 31%, is prevented through an investment of < $0.22B in forecasting and research, for a greater than twelve to one favorable benefit to cost ratio. The prevented impact is dominated by reduced mortality.

For more information:

Download 'Storm Chasers: Fury in the Skies' TV documentary
http://www.firstscience.com/home/firstscience.tv/stormchasers-fury-in-the-skies_8.html

Download 'Storm Chasers: Fury in the Plains' TV documentary
http://www.firstscience.com/home/firstscience.tv/storm-chasers-fury-on-the-plains_9.html

Download 'Oaklahoma Fury' TV documentary
http://www.firstscience.com/home/firstscience.tv/oklahoma-fury_12.html

Download 'When Nature Strikes Back: Chasing Killer Storms' TV documentary
http://www.firstscience.com/home/firstscience.tv/when-nature-strikes-back-chasing-killer-storms_16.html