Storm of the Century - Hurricane Floyd

Casualty and Damage Statistics

There were 57 deaths that were directly attributable to Floyd, 56 in the United States and 1 in Grand Bahama Island. The death toll by state is as follows: North Carolina 35, Pennsylvania 6, New Jersey 6, Virginia 3, Delaware 2, New York 2, Connecticut 1, and Vermont 1. Most of these deaths were due to drowning in freshwater flooding. Floyd was the deadliest hurricane in the United States since Agnes of 1972.

In the United States, the Property Claims Services Division of the Insurance Services Office reports that insured losses due to Floyd totaled 1.325 billion dollars. Ordinarily this figure would be doubled to estimate the total damage. However, in comparison to most hurricane landfalls, in the case of Floyd there was an inordinately large amount of freshwater flood damage, which probably alters the two to one damage ratio. Total damage estimates range from 3 to over 6 billion dollars.

Forecast and Warning Critique

Official intensity forecasts were fairly good (errors of 10 knots or less) for the first couple of days of Floyd's history. However, there were some large underforecasts of intensity, by as much as 30 to 40 knots, from 10-12 September. After Floyd reached its maximum intensity, the official forecasts did not show enough weakening. From 13 September onward, the wind speed was overpredicted in the advisories at practically every forecast time interval, by as much as 30 to 40 knots, and even 50 knots in one occasion. The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme, SHIPS, performed similarly.

A hurricane warning was issued for the northwest Bahamas more than 24 hours prior to the arrival of the eyewall at Eleuthera. For the United States, practically the entire east coast (the greater Miami area northward to Plymouth Massachusetts) was put under a hurricane warning for Floyd. To the authors' knowledge, the last time such an event occurred was during Hurricane Donna of 1960. Hurricane warnings for the southeast Florida coast proved unnecessary. However, given the forecast uncertainty and the required response times for evacuations and other preparations for such a large, severe hurricane, it was prudent to issue such warnings. The hurricane warning was issued for the coast of North Carolina at 0300 UTC 15 September. This is about 26-27 hours prior to the arrival of the eyewall in the Cape Fear area. Generally, for the coasts of South and North Carolina, hurricane warnings were issued at least 24 hours before the onset of tropical storm force winds.