Severe Weather Storm Warnings

A new device onboard two NASA satellites could improve 3 to 12-hour forecasts of severe weather storm warnings.

"A severe weather watch is in effect for Okaloosa, Walton and Escambia counties until 11:00 p.m." That's what typical severe weather storm warnings looks like, flashing across your prime-time television screen. Helpful, but a little vague.

How about this instead? "A severe storm with 60-70 mph winds and 3-4 inches of precipitation is expected in Walton county tonight between 8:00 and 8:30 p.m." Much better! In the near future, forecasters expect to achieve this new level of potentially life- and property-saving detail.

Some fundamental limits to the predictability of weather do exist, but today the greatest barrier to more detailed forecasts is the amount and quality of data available to forecasters. A new generation of weather satellites, which NOAA plans to begin launching around 2011, will carry advanced sensors capable of producing higher-resolution images containing more information about the atmosphere and ground than today's satellites can provide. This sharper, richer picture of the ever-changing atmosphere--available to forecasters in near real-time--will bring a new level of detail and accuracy to short-term forecasts.

But scientists don't need to wait another 7 years to learn how to use this higher-quality data. Sensors of this caliber are already in orbit: they're aboard NASA's newest climate research satellites, Terra and Aqua. That's why NASA has joined forces with NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) to start learning how to incorporate such high-quality data into 3- to 12-hour forecasts now.

"What we're trying to do is to give the National Weather Service a head start with incorporating this higher-quality data into their forecasts," explains Gary Jedlovec, a meteorologist at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. Jedlovec is one of the leaders of this collaborative project, known as SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition).

"The aviation community is especially keen to improve 3- to 12-hour forecasts as soon as possible," adds Tom Bradshaw, science operations officer at the NWS forecast office in Huntsville, Alabama. "The better the quality of the data going [into our computer models], the better the chance you have of a good prediction coming out."