Rift Valley Fever

Using sea surface temperatures to predict when East Africa might be vulnerable, and using the greenness index to pinpoint exactly where, researchers can alert health officials to potential danger. "What we can do is provide public health officials with an efficient way of being able to focus their resources, rather than sending teams out all over the place," says Anyamba.

Deer mice and mosquitoes are disease vectors that can suddenly flourish in areas made wet by El Niño.

The method used to forecast Rift Valley fever could be expanded to predict other types of epidemics. It could be applied in areas that, like East Africa, are usually dry, but sometimes experience heavy rains, and that, like East Africa, have ecosystems that burgeon when precipitation comes.

Hanta virus outbreaks in the American southwest could be monitored in this way. The virus is carried by deer mice and can kill people who have been exposed to it. Like Rift Valley fever, says Anyamba, Hanta virus is correlated with rainfall. "The US southwest is really a very dry environment," he says, "and you are likely to see there the same kind of bioclimatic rhythms that you see in East Africa."

Right now, says Anyamba, "we're in operational mode [for East Africa]." Every month, he and his colleagues post their findings on the web, so that people in the field can "check the animals, check the people, see whether there's any activity."

Things are quiet - for now.

But sea temperatures will shift again. And when they do, the work of Anyamba and his colleagues will save lives

For more information:

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http://www.firstscience.com/home/firstscience.tv/flu-time-bomb_5.html