Editor's Weekly Ramblings 8

Friday 2nd May 2003

SARS 2003 - Influenza 1918 - A Warning From History?

SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) is the current de-rigeur 'killer virus'. It is only about six weeks from reports of the first cases to today. And yet it is the subject of untold column inches, and television programmes, with world maps in newspapers showing its insidious spread around the globe.

Until very recently, such well known third world health black-spots as Toronto in Canada, were on the World Health Organizations non-essential travel list (subsequently revoked). And even now, as much of the world seems to be recovering and getting SARS under control, other parts of the world like China and Hong Kong are struggling to contain it. It remains to be seen how SARS will play out. It is early days to discuss its long-term ramifications. What is clear however is that the threat from rogue viruses is a very real one. These evolutionary timebombs explode in our midst every so often, and are likely to become ever more prevalent in the face of burgeoning and mobile populations, and greater population densities.

As of the 30th April 2003 there are 5663 reported cases of SARS worldwide, with 372 deaths. Of these, 1589 cases are in Hong Kong, and 3460 in China. 316 of the dead are from these areas. (Full country breakdown here) This means that there are only 614 confirmed cases in countries outside of these two, and only 56 deaths. To further get these figures into perspective, consider that the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimated deaths from smoking to be 3.5 million a year in 1997, with an estimated 2000 people dieing in China each day from smoking related diseases. Allergic reactions to common medicines cause more deaths then SARS has so-far exhibited. Anaphylactic reactions to penicillin cause 400 deaths annually among Americans, and aspirin, although in many other ways a wonder drug, causes 500 deaths a year in the US in children under 6 through overdosing. So are we getting carried along with the SARS hype?